Risk Adjusted Medium-Long Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Country Acuity Advisors has partnered with Icon Economics to offer medium to long term macroeconomic forecasts to our valued customers. Our Country Risk and FX Reports combine our country expertise with macroeconomic and financial market capabilities to provide systematic, transparent, and unbiased long-term growth, inflation, and exchange rate forecasts for 23 Asia Pacific economies.
Systematic – Our forecast methodology is consistent across all countries in the region which allows apples-to-apples comparisons and avoids extrapolating trends or forecasting based on the whims of industry sentiment towards a particular country.
Transparent – Rather than hiding behind any ‘black box’ forecasting models which often face limitations and lack transparency, we provide a breakdown of the drivers of growth, inflation, and currencies so clients can see exactly where and why our forecasts differ from the consensus.
Unbiassed – Most importantly, our growth forecasts reflect our views and only our views, which allows us to be unshackled from the constraints often faced by larger organizations.
Our unique forecasting methodology is grounded in our understanding of free-market economic theory and the fundamental drivers of wealth creation, shaped by 30 years of real-world forecasting and risk analysis experience across Asia.
Use our forecasters to plan for the future and increase your organization's resilience to change and uncertainty. Our analysis and forecasts can be used to develop your own revenue growth estimates, plan for economic and political risks and opportunities, and gain an overall better understanding of the long-term outlook for Asia’s economic and political landscape.
What to use our forecasts ?
Who uses our forecasts?
Small & Medium Business
Fin-Tech & Start ups
Public Sector Agencies
Currency & commodities traders
Professional Services firms
Our forecasting philosophy, approach and Risk Adjustment Process
In an environment where we are inundated with information and data, we cut through the day to day clutter and the news cycle and focus on what's most important to medium-to-long term macroeconomic growth and wealth creation. Using a rules based systemic approach we focus on getting the long term drivers and major economic turning points right vs the monthly and quarterly gyrations of economic activity and financial markets. To do this, we look at fundamentals, which we then further break down to six broad categories to formulate our macroeconomic potential for any given economy. These categories include Economic potential, Financial Stability, Economic Freedom, Business Environment, Political Stability and Human Capital.
At the same time, macroeconomic forecasting is subject to hidden risks which are difficult to incorporate into core views. With this in mind, we have introduced Risk-Adjustments to our real GDP growth forecasts which take into account ‘hidden’ economic and/or political risk factors outside our baseline assumptions. Adjustments to our baseline forecasts reflect the exposure of the economy to exogenous shocks and the potential for positive or negative economic/political reforms.
OUR COVERAGE - GDP, INFLATION & EXCHANGE RATES
North East Asia - China, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Macau, Mongolia, North Korea, South Korea and Taiwan
South East Asia - Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam
South Asia - Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka
Oceania - Australia, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanavatu
Foreign Exchange Forecasts - For all 23 above economies against the USD, Euro, GBP and Yen
MACROECONOMIC GROWTH - GDP Annual One Time Payment
We provide 10-year real GDP macro economic growth outlook and forecasts for the above 23 Asian economies. Our forecasts are based on fundamentals, theory, and real world data. Because forecasting complex and dyanmics systems is more an art than science and is fraught with risk, we introduce a Risk Adjusted GDP figure to accompany our core forecasts and provide an extra layer of utility.
This risk adjustment brings into play political, economic, financial, social and governance factors which help determine the variability of growth across the region.
We will update this forecast quarterly (4 times per year). Updates will be emailed.